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專家稱朝鮮可能誤讀美國2020年總統大選

wjrxm 于2019-12-30發布 l 已有人瀏覽
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一些朝鮮專家擔心該國領導人金正恩可能對自己影響2020年美國總統大選的能力過于自信。
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体育比分预测竞猜网站 www.010514.live Experts: North Korea May Be Misreading the 2020 US Election

專家稱朝鮮可能誤讀美國2020年總統大選

Some North Korea experts are worried that leader Kim Jong Un might become too sure of his ability to affect the 2020 U.S. presidential election.

一些朝鮮專家擔心該國領導人金正恩可能對自己影響2020年美國總統大選的能力過于自信。

North Korea said it wants the U.S. to agree to additional concessions in nuclear talks by December 31. It also has promised a "Christmas gift" for the United States. Some experts believe that could mean a possible long-range missile test.

朝鮮表示,希望美國在12月31日前同意在核談判中做出更多讓步。它還承諾給美國送上一份“圣誕大禮。”一些專家認為,這或許意味著朝鮮可能要進行遠程導彈試驗。

Such a move could damage nearly two years of diplomacy between U.S. President Donald Trump and Kim. Additionally, it could suggest that Kim believes he can get a better deal. This is most likely because he considers Trump weakened by the impeachment process in the U.S. House of Representatives. He also may see a difficult reelection campaign that is set to enter a more demanding period of time.

這樣的舉動可能會損害美國總統川普和金正恩之間近兩年的外交努力。此外,這可能表明金正恩認為他可以拿到一份更滿意的協議。這可能是因為他認為川普會因受到眾議院彈劾而軟化。他還可能認為川普的連任會很艱難,會進入一個更為苛刻的時期。

Trump has described his meetings with Kim as a major foreign policy victory. He has sometimes linked North Korea with his 2020 reelection chances. There is, however, little evidence suggesting it will be a major issue for U.S. voters.

川普曾表示他與金正恩的會晤是一次外交政策的重大勝利。他有時會把自己2020年連任的機會與朝鮮聯系起來。但是幾乎沒有任何證據表明這將會成為美國選民關注的主要議題。

North Korea has not directly threatened to interfere with the election. However, its state media have accused the U.S. of using the nuclear talks to serve as a foreign policy win for Trump during the election. North Korean officials also have said Trump must be in "great jitters" about North Korea's next move.

朝鮮沒有直接威脅要干涉選舉。然而,朝鮮官方媒體指責美國在選舉期間將核談判作為川普外交政策的勝利。朝鮮官員還表示,川普必定會對朝鮮的下一步行動深感不安。

They truly believe they can influence the presidential election in November, said Bong Young-shik. He teaches at Seoul's Sogang University.

奉英植表示:“他們堅信自己可以影響來年11月的美國總統大選。”奉英植在首爾西江大學任教。

Trump takes credit...but little has been agreed to

川普攬功,但是核談判所達成共識甚少

North Korea's actions may be the result of Trump's words. At times, he described the nuclear talks as having succeeded.

朝鮮的行為可能是川普言語刺激的結果。川普有時候會稱核談判是成功的。

After his first meeting with Kim in 2018, Trump said, "There is no longer a Nuclear Threat from North Korea." Experts note that North Korea never agreed to give up its nuclear weapons. They add that it has been increasing its nuclear weapons.

川普在2018年與金正恩會面后表示,“再也不會有來自朝鮮的核威脅。”專家們指出,朝鮮從未同意放棄其核武器。他們還稱朝鮮一直在增加其核武器。

Trump has also taken credit for Kim's decision to observe a two-year-long suspension on long-range missile and nuclear tests. By threatening to end the suspension, Kim seems to be trying to improve his negotiating position.

川普還對金正恩決定暫停兩年的遠程導彈和核試驗表示贊賞。金正恩似乎試圖通過威脅要取消暫停試驗來改善他的談判立場。

Earlier this month, Trump warned Kim against causing problems during the U.S. presidential campaign.

本月初,川普警告金正恩在美國總統大選期間不要搞事。

I'd be surprised if North Korea acted hostilely, Trump said in early December. "He knows I have an election coming up. I don't think he wants to interfere with that, but we'll have to see."

川普在12月初表示:“如果朝鮮采取敵對行動我會感到很驚訝。金正恩知道我即將進行大選。我認為他不會干涉大選,但是我們必須拭目以待。”

Not a big factor in 2020

并非2020年大選的主要因素

Public opinion studies suggest domestic, not foreign policy issues are the most important ones in U.S. presidential elections.

民意調查表明在美國總統大選中,最重要的是國內議題,而不是外交政策議題。

For example, studies show that only about 13 percent of voters said foreign policy was the most important issue during the 2016 presidential election.

例如,調查表明只有13%的選民稱外交政策是2016年總統大選期間最重要的議題。

Before that election, the Pew Research Center reported that most voters said that Hillary Clinton would make better foreign policy decisions.

在那次選舉前,皮尤調查中心報告稱,大多數選民表示希拉里·克林頓將會作出更好的外交政策決策。

John Delury is a professor at Seoul's Yonsei University. He said "it would take a war really for North Korea to (effect) who the next American president is."

約翰·德勒里是首爾延世大學的教授。他說:“朝鮮真想要影響下屆美國總統選舉,得發動一場戰爭。”

Trump shrugs off deadline

川普無視最后期限

So far, Trump has said nothing about North Korea's time limit. In fact, Trump has rarely spoken about North Korea in the past several months, even as the country has carried out several short-range missile tests.

到目前為止,川普尚未對朝鮮的時限發表任何評論。實際上川普在過去幾個月里也很少談到朝鮮,哪怕朝鮮進行了幾次短程導彈試驗。

He wants to be able to say he made a deal, said Gwenda Blair. She has written about the Trump family for many years.

格溫達·布萊爾表示:“川普希望能夠稱他達成了協議。”布萊爾多年來寫了很多關于川普家族的文章。

I'm Susan Shand.

我是蘇珊·尚德。

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